February 2008

ALERT, a monthly publication of the Information Resource Center at the American Center for Educational Exchange, offers abstracts of current articles in major areas of U.S. domestic or international affairs. Full-text articles are available to you upon request. To request articles, please contact the Information Resource Center by telephone , fax, e-mail ircacee@state.gov, or by mail. To request by mail, please circle the articles you wish to receive, include your name, address, and telephone number and return this list to us.  DISCLAIMER: articles and links to non-U.S. government Internet sites should not be construed as an endorsement of the views contained therein.

The Rule of Law

1. IN DEFENSE OF FRONTLOADING 
Alarkon, Walter 
Campaigns & Elections, vol. 28, no. 12, December 2007, pp. 14-15

The author notes that there has been plenty of coverage regarding Americans’ concerns with the early primaries schedule. Among the criticisms are that the schedule does not provide enough time for a candidate to recover from an early loss and results in an excruciatingly long general election. But, as Alarkon argues, there are some benefits to moving the primaries earlier. For instance, the new schedule allows more states and more voters to weigh in on the process before the nomination is locked up. It also allows for a diverse set of voters to have their opinion heard. For example, in the past, most attention was given to Iowa and  New Hampshire , but   Nevada  ’s early primary allows for a greater number of Hispanic voters to influence the process. Alarkon also outlines some of the proposals suggested for setting future primary calendars. They include letting the smallest states vote first, rotating the order of primaries or picking the first primaries by lottery. 

2. IRAQ  CASUALTIES AND THE 2006 SENATE ELECTIONS  
Kriner, Douglas; Shen, Francis  
Legislative Studies Quarterly, vol. 32, no. 4, November 2007, pp. 507-530 

Kriner and Shen, from  Boston and Harvard universities, respectively, find that increased casualty numbers in the Iraq war had a marked effect on the 2006 U.S. Senate elections. Proceeding on the assumption that “even the most national of issues ... may have a strong local component,” they studied 2006 midterm election data from state and county levels. Despite the many facts that may inform the public in their evaluation of Iraq war policy, the authors maintain the number of American casualties is the “most concrete and publicly visible measure of the war’s costs.” Direct personal contact with war participants significantly influenced perceptions. They studied how the Iraq war was used by a number of candidates in their campaigns. While voting behavior differed from locality to locality, the authors concluded that Iraq war casualties had a significant and negative effect on Republican U.S. Senate candidates. They write that their results offer “compelling evidence for the existence of a democratic brake on military adventurism,” which is strongest in communities sustaining the most losses.

3. LONG TIME COMING: THE PROSPECTS FOR DEMOCRACY INCHINA
Thornton, John L. 
Foreign Affairs, Vol. 87, No. 1, January-February 2008

The Chinese view of democracy differs from the Western view, but many Chinese want more democracy and believe it is coming, according to the author, a professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing and chairman of the board of the Brookings Institution. Elections have been held in rural Chinese villages already for 20 years. Elections of pre-selected candidates have been held in a few townships and counties, the next administrative levels up. Perhaps more importantly, the Chinese Communist Party is putting forward multiple candidates for certain party positions; some observers imagine party factions could emerge in such a scheme that would make the party resemble Japan's long-ruling Liberal Democratic party, where policy differences are part of the legitimate process. The Chinese are also taking steps to make their judicial system and administrative system less corrupt, more open to challenge, and rooted in rule of law. "Optimists believe that gradualism will make the current liberalization last longer than the euphoric, but ultimately failed, experiences of the past," Thornton said.

Economics and Trade

4. FOOD PRICES, CHEAP NO MORE 

Economist, vol. 385, no. 8558, December 8, 2007, pp. 81-83

During the last couple of years, food prices have risen dramatically, and are at their highest levels in years. In the past, high food prices have usually been the result of poor harvests, but they are now occurring during a time of great abundance: the total cereals crop for 2007 is about 1.66 billion tons, the largest on record, and 89 million tons more than the 2006 harvest. At the same time, world grain reserve stocks as a percentage of production are at all-time lows. Several factors are contributing to this rise. First, demand for meat is growing in China and India , resulting in much greater consumption of grain to feed animals. Secondly, production of biofuels is consuming an ever-greater percentage of corn and other crops, that would otherwise go to feed people. Third, rising oil prices are increasing the cost of growing, processing and transporting grain. This has had an effect on other non-grain crops, as farmers devote more acreage to growing corn or soybeans for biofuels. The increase in food prices will hit developing countries the hardest; while farmers will benefit, the majority of the world’s poor are net food buyers.

5. GLOBAL WARMING LOSERS

Cline, William

International Economy, vol. 21, no. 4, Fall 2007, pp. 62-65

The author, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and the Center for Global Development, and the author of GLOBAL WARMING AND AGRICULTURE: IMPACT ESTIMATES BY COUNTRY, writes that his studies show that global warming will have a more adverse effect on agriculture than has previously been assumed. While some northern regions will become more agriculturally productive due to rising temperatures, they will be more than cancelled out by losses in agricultural productivity in temperate and equatorial areas. Regions that could experience a 25 percent or greater loss in productivity in the coming decades includes much of the developing world -– Central and South America, Africa, the Middle East, South Asia and the entire Indian subcontinent. Cline notes that these findings indicate that international efforts to curb global warming are essential, and that the next step is to deflect the rapidly rising emissions of developing countries. He singles out India , whose dire agricultural prospects should spur it to participate in international efforts to reduce emissions, and exert peer pressure on China to do so as well.

6. THE LAST EMPIRE: CHINA ’S POLLUTION PROBLEM GOES GLOBAL

Leslie, Jacques

Mother Jones, vol. 33, no. 1, January/February 2008

The author writes that the emergence of China as a world economic power is “an epochal event, as significant as the United States ' ascendancy after World War II.” It has also resulted in the biggest building boom and the largest transfer of natural resources in human history. China has become the world’s biggest producer of manufactured goods, the most ravenous consumer of raw materials and natural resources, and the world’s biggest polluter, having recently surpassed the U.S. as the biggest emitter of carbon dioxide. The environmental degradation both in China and abroad, ranging from deforestation, loss of species, desertification and mercury and sulfur dioxide pollution, has been staggering. The author notes, however, that when economic-development delegations from China began visiting the West in the late 1970s and early 1980s to see how developed economies fostered growth, the conclusion they came to was that automobile-centered suburbal sprawl was the model to be followed. “The United States passed up the opportunity it had at the beginning of China 's economic transformation to guide it toward sustainability, and the loss is already incalculable,” writes Leslie. He notes that, even though humanity is at the edge of a global environmental abyss, it is presumptuous to expect China to cut its emissions equally with the U.S.

7. NEW AGE THINKING

Shoven, John B.

Foreign Policy, no. 164, January-February 2008, pp. 82-83

Will the worldwide tidal wave of aging baby boomers create a fiscal burden that will devastate the global economy? No, says Shoven, director of the Institute for Economic Policy Research at Stanford University . Our conception of “old” has itself become old-fashioned, he writes. He recommends using modern mortality risk measurements -- or the chance a person has of dying within the next year -- to measure age. The higher the mortality risk, the “older” a person is. Today’s 65-year-old man can expect to live another 17 years and has the same mortality risk a 59-year-old man did in 1970 or a 56-year-old man did in 1940. (Women, on average, live longer than men.) So, if one looks at the fraction of the U.S. population with a mortality risk higher than 1.5 percent, the growth of the “elderly” population is not that dramatic. By 2050, Shoven says, only 62.5 million Americans, or about 1.5 percent of the population, will have a mortality risk greater than 1.5 percent. Nonetheless, the average length of retirement for today’s 65-year-old man has stretched to more than 19 years. To keep the costs of ever-lengthening retirements under control, Shoven recommends altering retirement ages and pensions to reflect current mortality risks.

8. A SOLAR GRAND PLAN

Zweibel, Ken; Mason, James; Fthenakis, Vasilis

Scientific American, January 2008

Solar power could eliminate U.S. dependence on imported oil and slash greenhouse gas emissions, note the authors, in this article on a bold proposal to construct a nation-wide solar-energy generation and distribution system by the year 2050. The U.S. has a quarter-million square miles in the Southwest on which tracts of photovoltaic panels and parabolic-trough solar concentrators could be built, and the electricity generated would be transmitted along high-voltage direct current lines, far more efficiently than the alternating-current lines in use today; compressed-air or molten-salt systems would be employed for overnight energy storage. It would cost the federal government USD 400 billion over the next four decades to build it, but the payoff would be far greater. The major hurdle is not technology or money, but an awareness by elected officials and the public that solar power is a practical alternative.

Global Issues

9. ARMIES OF ONE

Dorroh, Jennifer

American Journalism Review, vol. 29, no. 6, December 2007/January 2008, pp 12-13

The American Broadcasting Company (ABC) is launching the network’s largest overseas expansion in over 20 years with new one-person foreign bureaus. Technology makes the expansion affordable. According to David Westin, ABC News president, “We can do several of these (one-person bureaus) for the price of one traditional bureau.” A stand-alone multimedia reporter’s equipment costs a mere $10,000. The costs of running a traditional full-size bureau can run $500,000 per year. The journalists who take on the new posts must be “Jacks-of-all-trades” who can handle digital video cameras, satellite dishes and laptops. They will be expected to record, edit and transmit their own audio and video reports from places like Nairobi , Jakarta , Mumbai, New Delhi , Rio de Janeiro , Seoul and Dubai as well as neighboring countries. Although most of their reporting will be for ABC’s Internet outlets, the reporters will be expected to be first on the scene when a story breaks in their regions. “The correspondents aren’t completely alone,” Dorroh writes. “Each reports either to the London bureau or to the network’s foreign desk in New York . Colleagues at ABC’s various platforms edit their work, and they get logistical and technical support locally from stringers and from ABC News partners like the BBC (British Broadcasting Corporation).”

10. ENTREPRENEURIAL PHILANTHROPY IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD: A  NEW FACE FOR  AMERICA, A CHALLENGE TO FOREIGN AID

De Lorenzo, Mauro; Shah, Apoorva

Development Policy Outlook, No. 3, December 2007

Private philanthropists are redefining what counts as philanthropy and are on the cutting edge of development practice, say the authors. Entrepreneurial philanthropists provide credit and business education to small- and medium-sized enterprises in poor countries. They demand accountability but do not seek to make money from their efforts. “They have the potential to outflank often moribund development agencies and state-funded NGOs (nongovernmental organizations) by demonstrating that enterprise solutions to poverty are possible, scalable, and sustainable ... The services they offer are not supplied by governments or private companies anywhere in the developing world ... The financial value of their contributions exceeds the U.S. foreign aid budget,” the they write. Among the examples they cite is the New York-based Endeavor, which provides no financing but offers the contacts and training necessary for carefully selected “high-impact entrepreneurs” to attract investment and venture capital. Founded in 1997, Endeavor’s services have helped business owners raise $871 million in equity. The 267 business owners chosen -– most are located in Latin America -- have created 75,000 jobs and in 2006 alone generated $1.5 billion in revenues.

11. THE UNCLE SAM SOLUTION: CAN THE GOVERNMENT HELP THE PRESS?SHOULD IT?

Nordenson, Bree

Columbia Journalism Review, vol. 46, no. 3, September/October 2007, pp. 37-41

The future of American newspapers has become a topic of increasing concern as circulation wanes and editorial cutbacks affect the quality of journalism. Top editors, experts and a media investor discuss the viability of government support of good news outlets with lagging profits. University of Illinois professor Robert McChesney notes that America ’s founders protected the press in the Constitution and subsidized three newspapers in each state, because without that, “there would be places with no newspapers.” Serious newsgathering is seldom done in Internet-based media, and newspapers continue to cut investigative reporting resources. This is despite the fact that editorial costs make up only nine to twelve percent of the average newspaper’s budget. But there is substantial opposition among journalists to government subsidies, editor Geneva Overholser says, adding that it should be carefully considered rather than rejected outright. European examples are given, the British Broadcasting Corporation among them, which show how government support has bolstered a free press and preserved it from undue corporate influence. Government support of American public broadcasting is also discussed. Prejudices against government should be discarded when survival of journalism is at stake, writes the author.

12. WEB BEATS PRINT: NO LONGER ON THE FRINGE, POLITICAL BLOGGERS NOW DRIVE COVERAGE

Strupp, Joe

Editor & Publisher, vol. 140, no. 12, December 2007, pp. 22-27

Mainstream news outlets have embraced the Web log, making political blogs key features of campaign coverage. The author interviews political bloggers from the Los Angeles Times, Reno Gazette-Journal, The Boston Globe, Chicago Tribune and The Washington Post. They say blogs provide more information sooner, but it’s demanding work and the results are unpredictable. “It is an online newsreel,” says Michael Tackett of the Chicago Tribune’s “The Swamp,” adding that anything goes: serious reporting comes alongside gossip, trivia and campaign ad videos. Blogs allow greater freedom and can give a local flavor. “It is like a conversation, and it does not take as much context as a story because it is for people who know the context,” says the Reno Gazette Journal’s Anjeanette Damon. But writing at a fever pitch opens the doors to more editorial slips and errors. Cross-referencing competitors is new. It is part of Internet culture to feature a “blogroll,” links to other similar blogs. Blogs also invite readers to post comments. The author maintains that, thanks to blogs, candidates now receive unprecedented exposure.

Regional Security

13. COLOR BLIND: LESSONS FROM THE FAILED HOMELAND SECURITY ADVISORY SYSTEM

Shapiro, Jacob; Cohen, Dara Kay

International Security, Vol. 32, No. 2, Fall 2007, pp. 121-154

Noting that the point of a terrorism alert system is to get people to take measures to thwart terrorism, the authors regard the Department of Homeland Security's color-coded advisory system as a failure. For an alert system to succeed, the authors note, the issuing government must either share the information behind the alert, or operate the system with so much success that people always trust the government's word when an alert is issued. They believe that the "color-coded" system has come to be perceived by the public as neither particularly confiding nor trustworthy, and that as a result the public and local governments have marginalized a system they now consider to be politically manipulated. Not all of this is the Department of Homeland Security's fault, they add, but even so, a diminished popular reputation has crippled its warning system. As an alternative system, the authors propose the federal government negotiate in advance a set of measures to be taken at each alert level by business and local government. This new system would enable the government to specify a threat in a single geographic area; in return, federal authorities would have to be more specific about how serious they thought the threat was. Negotiating in advance with the private sector and smaller governments will enhance confidence in the system, the authors assert.

14. A NEW REALISM: CRAFTING A US FOREIGN POLICY FOR A NEW CENTURY

Richardson, Bill

Harvard International Review, vol. 29, no. 2, Summer 2007, pp. 26-30

American foreign policy makers face many new challenges in the 21st century. Problems that were once national have now gone global. The author believes that that the U.S. must create a foreign policy that is uniquely adapted to the world of global challenges. America remains vulnerable to terrorism as we fight new security challenges with old-fashioned, military methods. Richardson, governor of New Mexico and former U.S. Representative to the United Nations, identifies six trends that are transforming the world, including fanatical jihadism, illegal weapons trade, rise of Asian and Russian powers, and the growth of globalization in economic, health, environmental and social terms.

15. THE RISE OF CHINA AND THE FUTURE OF THE WEST

Ikenberry, G. John

Foreign Affairs, Vol. 87, No. 1, January-February 2008

China appears poised to overtake the United States as a world power, but the transition need not be a bloody one, according to Ikenberry, professor of politics and international affairs at Princeton University . China will face not a single power but the entire Western order of democratic capitalist states. That order, built around rules and market openness, creates the conditions for China and other rising powers to gain status and play a role in global governance. "The road to global power, in effect, runs through the Western order and its multilateral economic institutions," Ikenberry says. The coming power shift can occur peacefully and on terms favorable to the United States , but only by the United States reinforcing the Western order's system of global governance, first by reestablishing itself as its foremost supporter.

16. UNDERSTANDING CHINESE AND U.S. CRISIS BEHAVIOR

Xinbo, Wu

Washington Quarterly, vol. 31, no. 1, Winter 2007, pp. 61-76

The author, a professor and deputy director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, examines how China and the U.S. reacted to two recent “accidental crises” between the two sides -– the 1999 U.S. bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade and the 2001 mid-air collision of a U.S. reconnaissance aircraft with a Chinese fighter plane -– to suggest ways to deal with future crises. Much of the difficulty involved in both situations was the result of cultural differences. The Chinese place great emphasis on symbolic gestures and focus on assigning responsibility and maintaining national sovereignty and dignity, while the Americans are more direct and utilitarian. In future crises, the two sides should work to establish channels of communication as quickly as possible (through the foreign ministries rather than the military). Emphasis should be on quiet diplomacy rather than “overt vociferation,” and both sides must remember that it is in their best interests to “work to return to a normal and stable relationship as quickly as possible.”

17. WEAK STATES , STATE FAILURE, AND TERRORISM

Newman, Edward

Terrorism & Political Violence, vol. 19, no. 4, Fall 2007, pp. 463-488

Policymakers and scholars have been making the common assertion for a number of years that weak or failed states are the incubators of terrorism. The author, professor of political science and international studies at the University of Birmingham , notes, however, that terrorist groups have come from and operated within countries which have strong, stable governments. Weak and failed states may offer terrorist groups a tactical advantage, but the economic and logistical opportunities of stronger states gives these same groups strategic advantages, he notes. What weak and failed states offer is "an enabling environment," but are not incubators, Newman says. Such a condition, his research indicates, is not a sufficient explanation upon which to make significant policy decisions. State-building as a counterterrorism policy is effective where those governments are also actively engaged in anti-terrorism and counterterrorism efforts. Helping weak or failed states recover and grow is more an issue of improving regional development than one of counterterrorism, he writes.

18. A WORLD WITHOUT ISLAM

Fuller, Graham E.

Foreign Policy, no. 164, January-February 2008, pp. 46-53

To many, Islam seems to lie behind a broad range of international disorders. But a world without Islam would leave the world exactly where it is today, says Fuller, former vice chairman of the National Intelligence Council at the CIA and currently adjunct professor of history at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver . Terrorism, for example, in the name of Islam or any other religion is hardly unique, Fuller says. Religion is the best banner for oppressed peoples seeking to glorify their cause and has been used frequently across the centuries. Rather than being the source of confrontation, religion is the vehicle used by radical groups to articulate grievances. Even without Islam, the face of the Middle East is complex and conflicted, Fuller says; struggles over power, territory, influence and trade existed long before Islam arrived. “At rock bottom,” he writes, “conflict between East and West remains all about the grand historical and geopolitical issues of human history: ethnicity, nationalism, ambition, greed, resources, local leaders, turf, financial gain, power, interventions and hatred of outsiders, invaders, and imperialists. Faced with timeless issues like these, how could the power of religion not be invoked?”

U.S. Society and Values

19. CORPORATE AMERICA IN A POST-ADA WORLD

Cole, Yoji

DiversityInc, vol. 6, no. 10, November/December 2007, pp. 70-76

The American with Disabilities Act (ADA) opened some doors in the workplace but opportunities for people with disabilities remain elusive. However, executives with disabilities, interviewed for this article, credit the ADA with broadening the opportunities in corporate America but emphasize that legislation alone cannot create a culture completely accepting of people with disabilities. For that to happen, more people with disabilities must self-identify and demonstrate their talents. ADA requires employees to provide access and technology to help people with disabilities succeed at work but it does not force recruitment efforts. This is changing as the lack of skilled workers in the United States has forced corporations to focus attention on the talents of a group of people previously ignored, including people with disabilities and people of color. The article includes list of organizations that provide support for the almost 305,000 members of the U.S. military who were disabled in the line of duty during the Iraq War.

20. DESIGN THINKING

Bell, Steven J.

American Libraries, vol. 39, nos. 1-2, January/February 2008, pp. 44-49

According to the author, design thinking can offer a new perspective and a creative approach in organizing the professional workspace and creating the best possible worker experience. Design thinkers take a much more deliberate and thoughtful approach to problem resolution; they rarely jump on bandwagons. The author adapts his principles (understand; observe; visualize; evaluate/refine; implement) to the library professional but emphasizes that they can be used by others as well. With design thinking, librarians can navigate users to the library and its electronic resources and move beyond the traditional mindset of library service. Books and articles by and about design thinkers, such as the The Art of Innovation, can provide greater detail and more concrete examples of how design thinking is applied to the creation of products and services. The Blended Librarians Online Learning Community (blended librarian.org) is beginning to explore ways in which design thinking can be applied to further collaboration with community partners and help students achieve academic success.

21. MELINDA GATES GOES PUBLIC

Sellers, Patricia

Fortune, vol. 157, no. 1, January 21, 2008, pp. 44//56

In this interview, Melinda Gates, wife of Microsoft Corp. founder Bill Gates, talks about her husband, working in partnership with Warren Buffett, and her role in the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and its new approach to philanthropy. In 2005, the foundation increased its giving for global health, including more than $436 million in grants through its Grand Challenges in Global Health, a public-private partnership to develop health technology for the developing world that is easy to transport and use, and effective. The Gates Foundation has adopted a practical, get-it-done approach; where government-based one-size-fits-all efforts fail, the foundation instead assembles the right partners and the specific expertise required to solve a given problem. Depending on the issue, the foundation might work with governments, nonprofit organizations, businesses, or individuals. These efforts have created new incentives for corporate involvement and redefined traditional public-private boundaries, all in the name of having “the greatest impact for the most people.”

22. THE MOVEMENT IS THE MESSAGE

Gottschild, Brenda

Dance Magazine, vol. 82, no. 1, January 2008, pp. 62//68

Dancers have responded to social ills throughout the history of modern dance as dancers have mixed activism with art. Today, they are responding to a rainbow of causes, including the war in Iraq , breast cancer, racism, global warming, sexual abuse, torture tactics, domestic violence, environmental pollution, and homophobia. A new group of socially engaged works has emerged that allows contemporary artists to follow in the footsteps of their aesthetic ancestors, particularly since the wake-up call of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Urban Bush Women, Compagnie JANT-BI, Spectrum Dance Theater, Jane Comfort and Company, and Ananya Dance Theatre, profiled in this article, are among the contemporary groups who are exploring an area of performance that is still considered dangerous territory, especially when such artists risk their artistic integrity to take on such socially conscious themes. Two examples: Jane Comfort and Company, based in New York City , has created a work, An American Rendition, that uses dance images to symbolize hostages being tortured in remote outposts; another, Ananya Dance Theatre, in Minneapolis , tailors its ensemble of all-female dancers to performances that depict environmental pollution and the racism inherent in poisoning poor people’s neighborhoods.

23. MOVING ON

Clausen, Christopher

Wilson Quarterly, vol. 32, no. 1, Winter 2008, pp. 22-26

Whether in covered wagons or station wagons, Americans have always hit the road, driven by the belief that a better life exists somewhere else. Whether moving to a new house in the same neighborhood or going across the country, moving is a stressful, time-consuming and expensive proposition. It is also a sacred American rite, the modern-day equivalent of our immigrant ancestors on the frontier. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the average American moves 11.7 times in a lifetime. Better-educated and more affluent Americans move longer distances, while approximately 60% of native-born Americans still live in the state where they were born. Between 2005 and 2006, some forty million people changed addresses, almost fourteen percent of the entire population, which is considered below the historical average for the period since the government started keeping records in 1948.

24. WHAT IS PUBLIC DIPLOMACY? PAST PRACTICES, PRESENT CONDUCT, POSSIBLE FUTURE

Roberts, Walter R.

Mediterranean Quarterly, vol. 18, no. 4, Fall 2007, pp. 36-52

The author, cofounder of the Public Diplomacy Institute at George Washington University and a former member of the U.S. Advisory Commission on Public Diplomacy, writes that there is no agreement on what constitutes public diplomacy. A century ago, the populations of most countries were all-but-unreachable; no government had any reason to explain their policies to foreign publics. That changed with the invention of radio, which the Bolshevik and Nazi regimes used to great effect. It was the Nazi wartime propaganda activities in Latin America that prompted the U.S. to initiate cultural and academic exchanges. Roberts describes the post-WWII evolution of U.S. public diplomacy programs, which President Truman recognized were necessary during the newly-developing Cold War, and the often-thorny disagreements between “cultural” and “information” programs that led to the creation of the U.S. Information Agency. Roberts notes that in a modern, information-rich world, particularly with the development of the Internet, foreign publics are becoming more informed and sophisticated. Their attitudes are having an ever-greater impact on the actions of their governments, even in autocratic countries, and it is essential now that governments be able to reach the publics of other countries. The success of public diplomacy depends on a country’s policies, and has now become an essential part of our foreign policy.

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