Article Alert

June 2007

ALERT, a monthly publication of the Information Resource Center at the American Center for Educational Exchange, offers abstracts of current articles in major areas of U.S. domestic or international affairs. Full-text articles are available to you upon request. To request articles, please contact the Information Resource Center by telephone , fax, e-mail ircacee@state.gov, or by mail. To request by mail, please circle the articles you wish to receive, include your name, address, and telephone number and return this list to us.  DISCLAIMER: articles and links to non-U.S. government Internet sites should not be construed as an endorsement of the views contained therein.

The Rule of Law

1. THE CRITICAL BATTLES: POLITICAL RECONCILIATION AND RECONSTRUCTION IN IRAQ
Pascual, Carlos; Pollack, Kenneth
Washington Quarterly, vol. 30, no. 3, Summer 2007, pp. 7-19

Pascual, vice president and director for the Foreign Policy Studies Program at the Brookings Institution and former coordinator for reconstruction and stabilization at the Department of State, and Pollack, director of research at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution and former director for Persian Gulf affairs at the National Security Council, present their ideas for addressing the situation in Iraq, which they describe as a "monumental task." They believe it is vital that Iraq be recognized as a failed state and that Iran, Syria, Turkey, and neighboring Sunni states be involved. The best case would be for the surge to provide enough security to begin rebuilding Iraq's political, economic, and social institutions and thus make way for the compromises necessary for a political settlement. The authors also emphasize the need to take into account lessons learned about peacemaking and peacekeeping: 1) civil wars require political solutions, 2) the situation must be "ripe" for solutions, 3) a truce can buy time to build trust and allow for the possibility of finding a longer-term solution, 4) a solid security environment is necessary, 5) external forces and economic support will be needed for 8-10 years after a political settlement, and 6) the effort must be multilateral, preferably under a United Nations mandate.

2. DEMOCRACIES OF THE WORLD, UNITE
Daalder, Ivo; Lindsay, James
American Interest, Vol. 2, No. 3, January/February 2007

The authors write that "the Bush revolution in foreign policy is over"; the U.S.' unilateralist approach since Sept. 11 has alienated allies and greatly damaged our international standing. Daalder and Lindsay argue that traditional multilateralist approaches, such as working with traditionally close allies or with the U.N. or NATO, are "nineteenth- and twentieth-century policies for a twenty-first-century world" -- what they propose is a "Concert of Democracies", that share common values and perspectives. Traditional concerts-of-great-powers have their limitations -- countries such as China and Russia have divergent interests and often refuse to cooperate, and demagogues such as Hugo Chavez and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are greeted with resounding applause when railing against great-power dominance, because "many of their listeners resent being told what to do by a few powerful countries." The United Nations' "universality ... is its greatest curse -- it is beholden to its least cooperative members". The world's democracies, however, have a proven track record for cooperation, as well as the most capable militaries, the largest economies, and a shared commitment for the rule of law and good governance. The authors argue that the greatest source of legitimacy for such an alliance is that democracies recognize that international peace and justice are now based on protecting the rights of individuals; nation-state sovereignty can no longer be the sole principle of international politics. They describe at length how such an organization might be structured.

3. NON-DEMOCRATIC REVOLUTIONS AND ATTEMPTS AT STATE BREAKUP: IS THERE A CONNECTION?
Katz, Mark N.
World Affairs, vol. 169, no. 3, Winter 2007, pp. 111-117

Katz, professor of government and politics at George Mason University, compares the experiences of Russia, Yugoslavia, Indonesia, and Iraq, and concludes that revolutions can prove to be a serious obstacle to democratization in states with regionally dominant minorities. In each case, revolutionary movements that initially claimed democratic aspirations evolved into authoritarian regimes, alienating ethnic and religious communities and prompting repressive measures. When political and economic conditions eventually force democratic reforms, these long-held resentments seem to metastasize into nationalist movements pursuing independence rather than trusting the regime's second promise of democratization. While the author dwells on the regions of Chechnya, Kosovo, Aceh, Papua, and Kurdistan, he also argues that the revolution-state breakup correlation may also have possible implications for the futures of China, Iran, and Sudan as well.

4. THE NONPROFIT INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX: IS THERE SUCH A THING AS TOO MUCH CIVIL SOCIETY?
Alexander, Gerard
Weekly Standard, Vol. 12, No. 30, April 23, 2007, pp. 24-28

The nonprofit sector of the U.S. economy is showing rapid, massive growth, the author says, and there is speculation that it may change the nature of American society. Combined annual expenditures for all U.S. nonprofits in 2004 neared $1 trillion, and 2001 total employment was 12 million. Furthermore, this does not include religious organizations, which are treated differently for tax purposes. Nor does it include state colleges or universities, which now frequently register as nonprofits. By 2003 there were 1.2 million faculty members nationwide, 54 percent working full-time and most at state schools, Alexander says. Nor do these numbers account for hundreds of thousands of college administrators. U.S. nonprofits have seen their combined assets grow from $30 billion in 1975 to $525 billion in 2005. Microsoft founder Bill Gates' foundation is the richest, with assets of $29 billion. Second is the Ford Foundation with $12 billion. There are also 62 colleges or universities with endowments of $1 billion or more: Harvard has $29 billion, Yale $18 billion, Stanford $14 billion. The Gates Foundation's annual giving now begins to rival Sweden's annual foreign aid, yet it still represents just 1 percent of U.S. nonprofits' giving.

5. ON IMPROVING NATION-STATE GOVERNANCE
Rotberg, Robert
Daedalus, vol. 136, no. 1, Winter 2007, pp. 152-155

The author, a fellow of the American Academy, a Harvard professor and the president of the World Peace Foundation, argues for the creation of a universal system of ranking states with respect to their results in good-governance, just as the nongovernmental organization Transparency International is ranking states in respect to corruption. In the author's view, a transparent and objective ranking system would provide a stronger incentive to improvement and would have a more positive effect on the developing world than pressure from Washington, London or Brussels. He cites eight main categories of political services that numerous studies link to economic growth. The most important is security, followed by the rule of law, freedom to participate in the political process and economic opportunity. The other fundamental goods are health care, education, transportation and communication infrastructure, and the empowerment of civil society. As shown by numerous public opinion surveys in Africa, Asia, Latin America and Europe, these are also the aspects of "good governance" that most people throughout the world agree upon, writes the author.

6. UNILATERALLY SHAPING U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY POLICY: THE ROLE OF NATIONAL SECURITY DIRECTIVES
Gordon, Vikki
Presidential Studies Quarterly, Vol. 37, No. 2, June 2007, pp. 349-367

Among the foreign-policy tools that the President has at his disposal is the little-known National Security Directive (NSD). This tool of unilateral action was established during the Truman administration, initially as policy research papers designed to help the President in his decision-making process. It was not until the Kennedy Administration that NSDs were used to articulate policy decisions. NSDs are also used to request information from government agencies and formulate a cohesive policy for national action. Most NSDs are classified and unless the Administration releases an unclassified version or a fact sheet (usually to garner public support for a policy), neither Congress nor the public is aware that the Executive Branch has acted unilaterally on a particular policy. From the Kennedy through the Bush I Administrations (NSDs during the Clinton and Bush II Administrations remain classified), the author believes that 1200 NSDs have been issued, covering such topics as guidance for treaty negotiations, management coordination, setting policies for countries or regions, developing national security doctrines, arms sales, economic policy or establishing positions on international issues such as space, science, environment, refugees, human rights or public diplomacy. NSDs have long-lasting influence since they remain in effect unless rescinded by a later administration. The author, a PH.D candidate at Oxford Brookes University, notes that very little research has been done on NSDs and their effects since they remain out of the public domain. For this reason, Congress does not have the opportunity to either acquiesce or overturn a policy generated through the NSD process.

Economics and Trade

7. AVOIDING THE EXPORT CRUSH
Beattie, Alan
Financial Times, June 13, 2007

Financial Times writer Beattie reports that economies such as the Philippines, Indonesia, Brazil, and Egypt, having achieved some middle-income status through industrialization, now find expansion threatened by competition from China. Low-wage China has started exporting more sophisticated manufactured goods. Business people in the Philippines and similar economies now have to spend more time figuring out the niche in the global economy where they have a relative advantage. After letting low-cost factory jobs go to China, Hong Kong has developed its services sector and South Korea has turned to product development and design. China's emergence has revived the debate about the value of industrial policy. Opponents view businesses as best suited to seize niche market openings. Even supporters recognize that traditional industrial policy -- tariffs on imports and subsidies to domestic producers -- is no longer adequate.

8. ECONOMIC FREEDOM AND NET BUSINESS FORMATION
Campbell, Noel; Rogers, Tammy
Cato Institute, vol. 27, no. 1, Winter 2007, pp. 23-36

Economic research consistently indicates that countries with more economic freedom - secure property rights, limited government intervention, low taxes, etc. - enjoy higher per capita incomes and better living conditions than countries that are economically less free. Economists argue that in less free, more politicized economies creative economic energies are channeled away from wealth-creating entrepreneurial activity and into securing political protection from market forces. Campbell, from the University of Central Arkansas, and Rogers, from North Georgia College & State University, argue that similar differences also occur between the U.S. states, some of which have significantly different economic rules and regulations. They demonstrate that economic freedom on the state level has a more powerful and direct impact on entrepreneurial activity (understood as net business formation) than other state government policies aimed to stimulate the economy. The authors argue their findings support the libertarian economic approach: instead of yielding to the temptation to "fix" the economy, state governments should focus on safeguarding property rights and leaving entrepreneurs enough room to flourish. A smaller, less active government "will do more to promote prosperity than the conventional state development model," they say.

9. FATF SPECIAL RECOMMENDATIONS AND UN RESOLUTIONS ON THE FINANCING OF TERRORISM
Thony, Jean-Francois; Png, Cheong-Ann
Journal of Financial Crime, vol. 14, no. 2, 2007, pp. 150-169

The authors use an IMF study to discuss the design of the new international legal framework for combating the finance of terrorism. They report on the status of and obstacles to implementation of the Financial Action Task Force's (FATF) Special Recommendations and UN Security Council Resolutions on the financing of terrorism. They particularly focus on the areas which countries are having difficulties in complying fully with the requirements. Notable unresolved obstacles include the difficulty of applying international law instruments to non-state actors, and the need for ensuring persons affected by these measures have adequate legal recourses. Despite some countries' slow progress in implementation, the authors say that some tangible results have been achieved -- not so much in terms of terrorist funds being confiscated, but with regard to the ability of terrorists and terrorist organizations to take advantage of the international financial system to channel funds for their operations. The proof of this, they note, is in their increased use of traditional methods of cash-couriers to physically move funds across borders.

10. FROM CREDIT TO CROPS
Claessens, Stijn; Feijen, Erik
Finance & Development, vol. 44, no. 1, March 2007

The authors argue that more development of financial services can directly reduce world hunger by providing farmers in developing countries with the credit they need to buy such tools as tractors, fertilizers and livestock to increase agricultural production. This, in turn, causes household incomes to rise and food prices to decrease, resulting in less undernourishment. They studied more than 50 developing countries between 1980 and 2003 to find relationships between financial development and investment in agricultural inputs, productivity and nutrition. They incorporated variables likely to affect those relationships, such as government expenditures as a percentage of gross national product, level of economic activity, inflation and the percentage of the population living in rural areas. They found that private credit and greater agricultural productivity are linked, as are credit and investment in the use of agricultural equipment. The authors say commercial banks are achieving success in some poor countries, including the development of sustainable microcredit institutions, mobile phone banking, smart cards and the use of scoring to extend credit. Claessens is a research director at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Feijen in an economist with the World Bank.

11. ONE COUNTRY, TWO SYSTEMS, TEN YEARS: HONG KONG IS STILL HONG KONG
Baker, Gerard
Weekly Standard, Vol. 12, No. 39, June 25 - July 2, 2007, pp. 20-22

The author, U.S. editor of the Times of London, says ten years of Chinese control over Hong Kong have had mixed results. The economy, he says, is better than ever, in spite of weathering the Asian financial crisis, a collapse in property values, and an outbreak of SARS. Economic growth is prodigious -- it now surpasses New York in total amounts raised for initial public offerings; and "it remains the model of a low-tax, small-welfare, low regulation enterprise culture," writes Baker. Politically, he says, Hong Kong remains freer than anywhere else in China, but "it feels as though it is on a long leash." He says Taiwan democrats call Hong Kong a "birdcage democracy." Vigorous political activity in Hong Kong elicits warnings from Beijing to "stop messing around with politics." The March general election campaign took place for the edification of a total of 800 voters (in a territory of seven million people), most of them carefully chosen by Beijing. The pro-Beijing candidate won 80 percent of the vote. Still, he writes, the opposition candidate was allowed to criticize Beijing all over the territory, including in two U.S.-style debates.

12. THE PARADOX OF CAPITAL
Prasad, Eswar; Rajan, Raghuram; Subramanian, Arvind
Finance & Development, vol. 44, no. 1, March 2007, pp. 16-19

According to standard economic theory, financial capital should flow from richer, industrial to poorer, developing countries in search of new investment opportunities and higher rate of return. Foreign direct investment (FDI) does follow that pattern, but other capital flows tend to move in the opposite direction, a phenomenon that has long puzzled economists. The authors of the article point out that the paradox has intensified since 1990, when it was first described by Robert Lucas. By examining a sample of 51 nonindustrial countries, the authors also found out that countries that relied less on foreign finance have grown faster in the long run. In other words, higher growth in those countries is associated mainly with higher domestic savings. The authors suggest this may be a result of weak financial systems in many developing countries that hamper the absorption of foreign capital, slow down borrowing and force savings. In some countries with weak financial systems foreign capital may be neither needed nor helpful, the authors conclude, because the forces of globalization may be generating productivity gains and growth despite those financial weaknesses. "Any discussion of the merits of capital account openness is likely to be very specific to a country," they say.

13. PAX ASIA-PACIFICA? EAST ASIAN INTEGRATION AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES
Kurlantzick, Joshua
Washington Quarterly, Vol. 30, No. 3, Summer 2007, pp. 67-77

Kurlantzick, a fellow at the Pacific Council on International Policy and a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, describes how the countries of East Asia have begun to integrate and move toward the formation of a true regional community focused on "actors within the region such as China, rather than the United States, to resolve security and economic disputes." He attributes the beginning of this movement to the slowness of the United States to respond to the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s, which created the impression that the region was not important to the Americans, and to China's efforts to normalize ties with its neighbors. The East Asia Summit (EAS), a meeting of all Asian nations which first convened in 2005, could be the first step toward integration along the lines of the European Union. Some in Washington see this as a threat to U.S. influence in the region, but Kurlantzick discounts this, saying that U.S. opposition to Asian integration "will only enhance the appeal of China." He proposes instead that Washington encourage integration and revitalize its public diplomacy in the region, tasking Foreign Service officers to specialize in one country, developing close contacts with business and political leaders. The U.S. should also support democratization in the region and publicly back the idea of an Asian currency unit.

14. PUBLIC PROCUREMENT: SPOTTING THE BRIBE
--
OECD Observer, no. 260, March 2007, pp. 11-12

Corruption -- particularly in highly competitive government contracting -- costs millions of dollars annually. Government contracts also provide valuable, often long-term, business opportunities, so governments realize that strong anti-corruption measures are a sound investment. This article uses the OECD's Anti-Bribery Convention to examine the problem of corruption in public procurement. Three primary actions to reduce bribery and corruption include clear rules backed by enforcement; development of judicial and technical expertise within procurement offices; and, buy-in and understanding of the consequences of bribery from all personnel involved in the procurement process.

Global Issues

15. HIGH HOPES: AMERICA'S PUBLIC DIPLOMACY
Kofman, Michael
Diplomatic Courier, vol. 1, no. 1, Fall 2006, pp. 35-40

A new Washington-based global affairs magazine discusses the difficult mission of public diplomacy in a post-9/11 world where global public opinion is shaped by diverse sources of information beyond the control of any government. Kofman, a researcher with the U.S. Institute of Peace, writes that official U.S. government advocacy is forced to compete in a "vast sea of existing media, information, misinformation, news, propaganda and commercial marketing." Four key U.S. policies consistently affect Muslim world opinion negatively, he says: the Iraq conflict; the U.S.-led war on terrorism; one-sided support for Israel in its conflict, first with the Palestinians, then with Hizbollah; and our unilateral pursuit of self-interest on the world stage. It is not a marketing problem, Kofman says, and U.S. public diplomacy will never be very credible in the Muslim world "until the core policies that shape Muslim attitudes are changed." Neither Under Secretary Karen Hughes nor Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice are at fault, he writes. He says there are limits to the impact public diplomacy can have. The author says the U.S. government can advance broader policy interests by aiding and empowering its own civil society domestically to connect with others in the Muslim world and it should remove existing obstacles to such connections between U.S. and foreign organizations.

16. KIND OF CONFIDENTIAL
Robertson, Lori
American Journalism Review, Vol. 29, No. 3, June/July 2007, pp. 26-33

U.S. federal judges have been rejecting reporters' promises to keep silent about conversations with confidential sources, leading news organizations to warn sources that pledges of anonymity aren't absolute. "The law as it exists today does not provide the kind of absolute protection for sources that reporters traditionally thought they had the right to offer," says Kevin Baine of Williams & Connolly, the law firm representing the Washington Post. But media lawyers are seeing growing support for protecting journalists, including at the state level, the author says. Thirty-two states and the District of Columbia have shield laws, and seven additional states have introduced shield law legislation.

17. LOSING THE PROPAGANDA WARS
Kaylan, Melik
World Policy Journal, vol. 23, no. 4, Winter 2006/2007, pp. 19-26

The author, a Wall Street Journal commentator, writes that from the beginning of the Iraq venture, the Bush administration has not devoted much effort to winning over Iraqi public opinion, or in the greater Islamic world. Kaylan contrasts our tragic missteps in Iraq with the success in winning the Cold War; he believes that our descent "from zenith to nadir of preparedness ... is in considerable part a bureaucratic story". The U.S. government's public-diplomacy apparatus was largely dismantled and defunded by the Clinton administration after the Cold War, and suffered from a lack of direction during the 1990s; Kaylan fears that it will take years to rebuild. The present-day focus on the military rather than diplomacy has dismayed many longtime public-diplomacy professionals, who lament the "coarseness and inchoateness" of the current message. Kaylan notes that, to the Muslim world, the U.S. appears to "be trying too hard, and badly" -- the U.S. needs to show the Islamic world that we know them better, and to provide an outlet for the democratic tradition of Islamic thought, that has been in retreat in the face of fundamentalist threats. The author notes that many high-profile reports have called for an overhaul of our public-diplomacy efforts, including the 2003 Djerejian report, and assessments by the Council on Foreign Relations, the General Accounting Office, and the Heritage Foundation. They all agree that more funding is needed, that there is a severe dearth of Arab speakers in the U.S. diplomatic corps, and that public diplomacy be represented by a Cabinet-level position with direct access to the President.

18. THE TRUTH ABOUT RECYCLING
--
Economist, Vol. 383, No. 8532, June 9, 2007, p. 24

This article offers a global survey of the state of materials recycling, weighing the economics, the techniques and momentum of the practice. There are several major concerns in the recycling industry -- first, local governments in the United States and Europe often find that recycling isn't an economically viable practice because the costs of collecting, transporting, and sorting materials outweigh the market price. Another concern is whether recycled materials are bought and used in another manufacturing process which turns out a product that will end up ultimately in a landfill anyway. In some cases, products headed for recycling are disassembled in ways that release harmful gases into the environment, or expose workers to toxins. The most promising trend in the field is adoption of the "closed loop cycle" where materials and packaging are designed from the outset to create no waste, using materials that can be either recycled indefinitely or returned to the earth. Major corporations such as Wal-Mart, Toyota, and Nike have set goals to reach the zero-waste target.

19. TWO PATHS FOR THE PLANET
Gelbspan, Ross
American Prospect, vol. 18, no. 7, July/August 2007, pp. 45-48

Gelbspan, a longtime journalist interested in environmental issues, notes that humanity is facing "an increasingly chaotic future driven by a succession of climate-driven emergencies -- but the good news is that the bad news is at last being taken seriously." Not only is climate change no longer seriously doubted, but many in the private sector now admit that the free-market forces that have helped create the current global environmental crisis are powerless to reverse it. A transition to a more sustainable global economy and way of life will require unprecedented feats of cooperation among governments. Many corporate executives privately admit that government regulation is required to mandate universal adoption of renewable technologies in lockstep, otherwise one company that heavily invests in renewable energy may be undercut by the competition. He notes that the "carbon crisis could be a profoundly transformative opportunity to begin to reverse the growing and unsustainable gap between the world's rich and poor." As the world's biggest energy user, the U.S. can be a global leader in the energy transition, or it can obstruct it. Gelbspan concludes, "the future of the world quite literally depends on whether U.S. leadership rises to the occasion."

20. WHATEVER HAPPENED TO THE FUTURE?
Barrett, Randy
National Journal, vol. 39, no. 20, May 19, 2007, pp. 36-39

A 1981 U.S. government report, Global 2000, predicted that environmental, resource and population stresses could begin to seriously degrade the quality of life on the planet. The report sold 1.5 million copies, marking both the zenith and the demise of the futures movement. The Reagan administration scuttled the report and adopted budget policies which cut off funding for planning and projection within government agencies. Futurists -- represented by the World Future Society -- have been banished from government ever since, largely by a political process that looks no further than the next election. Problems such as global warming may create a public mood for a return of "futuring" in government, advocates say. Aging Baby Boomers may contribute to a swing toward policies with greater vision of generations to come, experts say, because "They want to make a difference before they die."

21. WORKING WITHOUT WIRES
Swope, Christopher
Governing, Vol. 20, No. 8, May 2007, pp. 28-34

A number of cities in the U.S. are installing wireless broadband networks to provide free public access to the Internet. While these projects are usually public-private partnerships and limited to selected public areas, the city of Corpus Christi, Texas took a different approach. This city of 282,000 installed its own WiFi network covering 147 square miles and found that most use was by city agencies, not residents or businesses. The network provides high-speed data exchange between field employees, such as police, firefighters and building inspectors, and their offices, and allows real-time monitoring of public parks, city vehicles, and water and gas meters. Other uses are under development. While Corpus Christi recently sold its network to a commercial company which will maintain and upgrade the system and charge a fee for access, other municipalities continue to watch and learn from the city's experience with WiFi.

Regional Security

22. AL QAEDA STRIKES BACK
Riedel, Bruce
Foreign Affairs, vol. 86, no. 3, May-June 2007, pp. 24-40

The author, a CIA veteran and now at the Brookings Institution, views U.S. intervention in Iraq as contributing to al Qaeda's expansion, enabling it to become more dangerous than ever. Al Qaeda's strategy is to draw the U.S. into demoralizing, costly wars, possibly even encouraging a U.S. invasion of Iran, thus encouraging more adherents to its terrorist goals. Al Qaeda has expanded its operations from Pakistan and Afghanistan to a base in Iraq and is moving to expand in failed and failing states in the Middle East and Africa, exploiting Sunni-Shiite divisions and hatred of the West. Its decentralized structure allows it to survive the deaths of individual leaders. Al Qaeda has new reach in Europe and is poised to threaten the United States directly again. Riedel writes that the U.S. needs a grand strategy to defeat al Qaeda, not only by targeting its leaders but also by addressing the issues that give the group a following in the Muslim world: the Arab-Israeli conflict, the Kashmir conflict, brutal governments, and poverty.

23. CONCESSIONS ON IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM WOULD HELP MODERATES
Sahimi, Muhammad
New Perspectives Quarterly, Vol. 24, no. 2, Spring 2007, pp. 19-21

Dignified treatment of Iran and the offering of concessions - even symbolic ones - in return for suspension of its nuclear programs would help Iran's moderates, according to Sahimi, professor of engineering at the University of Southern California and a close associate of Nobel Prize-winning human-rights lawyer Shirin Ebadi. The vast majority of Iranians, according to Sahimi, "despises their country's ruling hardliners" but supports Iran's nuclear program because it has become a source of national pride. Closing the Natanz facilities, where Iran is researching uranium enrichment, is not the solution to international community's security concerns, he says. Sahimi estimates that without an alternative energy source, Iran may become a net importer of oil by 2015. Enriched uranium could be safely supplied to Iran's reactors through a multinational fuel consortium safeguarded by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), a proposal that was made by IAEA in 2005, and which is similar to a 1975 proposal by the administration of President Gerald Ford. "Thus, a diplomatic solution to the problem of Iran's uranium enrichment program is in hand, and only awaits serious negotiations," says Sahimi, who has written extensively on Iran's nuclear programs and their political impact.

24. FIGHTING AN ANTAEAN ENEMY: HOW DEMOCRATIC STATES UNINTENTIONALLY SUSTAIN THE TERRORIST MOVEMENTS THEY OPPOSE
Parker, Tom
Terrorism & Political Violence, vol. 19, no. 2, Summer 2007, pp. 155-179

Adopting and maintaining a measured response to terrorist attacks and threats is the greatest challenge facing democratic states, says the author, a professor at Brown University. Research shows that states adopting repressive counterterrorism policies ultimately foster the growth of more resilient and aggressive terrorist organizations, and not the opposite effect. Parker has taken the research of Carlos Marighela -- who has argued that one of the principal goals of the urban guerrilla is to force the state into an uncontrolled spasm of overreaction to undermine its legitimacy -- and developed an analysis of five democratic states and their responses to terrorist organizations. In all of the cases, the trend seems to support Parker's conclusion that aggressive and repressive counterterrorist measures hurt the state more than it helped. Parker concludes that democracies should focus on the criminal element and treat terrorism as a law-enforcement problem. In every response by the state, he says, the key is moderation in the response, and denying political opportunity is the best strategy of control.

25. GETTING RELIGION? THE PUZZLING CASE OF ISLAM AND CIVIL WAR
Toft, Monica Duffy
International Security, Vol. 31, No. 4, Spring 2007, pp. 97-131

The author notes that from 1940 through 2000, civil wars were more common in Islamic countries than in countries dominated by other faiths. To explain this, she coins the phrase "religious outbidding," which holds that political elites will frame contentious issues as religious issues and send others to fight for a faith if they believe their survival hinges on perceptions of doctrinal legitimacy. Doctrinal legitimacy is particularly important in Islamic societies at present, she argues, as they feel threatened by the proximity both of Israel and of petroleum reserves to their holy sites. In addition, the Islamic doctrine of jihad (defense of the Islamic faith as an obligation) may contribute to the intensity of such civil wars. The author adds that the holy books of Christianity, Judaism, and Islam often have an uncompromising quality; in addition, they promise immortality in the face of physical destruction, both qualities that may make religious civil war more deadly than others.

26. MAKING 1540 WORK: ACHIEVING UNIVERSAL COMPLIANCE WITH NONPROLIFERATION EXPORT CONTROL STANDARDS
Fuhrman, Matthew
World Affairs, vol. 169, no. 3, Winter 2007, pp. 143-152

Preventing hostile regimes and terrorists for shopping the globe for WMD is at the heart of instituting an effective international export control regime. The author traces the experiences of Russia and India in the 1990s to present best practices for the United States to encourage others to adhere to UN Security Council Resolution 1540, which contributes to the international control of WMD and related materials. He advocates a two-stage approach, where the United States establishes a state's willingness to comply, offering outreach, incentives, or sanctions as needed, then enhancees their ability to comply through training, equipment, and expertise to help states develop the legislation and facilities needed to keep WMD out of the wrong hands.

27. NATO'S INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ROLE IN THE TERRORIST ERA
De Nevers, Renee
International Security, Vol. 31, No. 4, Spring 2007, pp. 34-66

While the United States has cobbled together various coalitions in its pursuit of the war on terrorism, NATO, as a formal institution, has played a limited military role. While contributing to defense, and mounting military missions in Afghanistan, Bosnia, and elsewhere, NATO has not come up with a consistent extra-territorial strategy against terrorism, in part due to limited military capabilities. In addition, the U.S. strategy has shown a preference for cobbling together ad-hoc alliances quickly, rather than mobilizing the NATO as a whole. While NATO has expanded defensive tactics in the Mediterranean, intelligence sharing tends to be bilateral. In addition, NATO's effectiveness in the field is limited by national constraints on troop activity and a shortage of armed personnel. The author concludes the United States is unlikely to abandon NATO, which it regards as its most valuable political alliance. However, the success or failure of NATO forces in Afghanistan may define its military usefulness in the war against terror.

28. ROARING MICE AND A FRIGHTENED ELEPHANT: WHY A MISSILE DEFENSE MIGHT SAVE THE UNITED STATES FROM THE EVILS OF ROGUE STATES
Jakobsen, Jo
World Affairs, vol. 169, no. 3, Winter 2007, pp. 99-109

The author uses game theory to defend the US rationale for developing its ballistic missile defense system. Cold War-era assumptions of "extended deterrence," based upon the credible threat of a theoretical second-stage retaliation strike once underwrote strategic relations between "elephants" in Washington and Moscow. In contrast, today's "mice" - rogue states with limited nuclear arsenals - may consider blackmail or even the value of a single strike against the United States if it calculates that there would be at worst a limited strike, given the "nuclear taboo" which has prevailed in conflicts since the end of World War II. From this perspective, the author concludes, missile defense could arguably prevent escalation of a rogue state conflict by updating the credibility of U.S. "extended deterrence," but remains skeptical if the world would be much safer as a result.

29. THE WIDENING GAP BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND EUROPE: DOES IT MATTER?
Coonen, Stephen J.
Parameters, vol. 36, no. 3, Autumn 2006, pp. 67-84

The author describes the widening military capabilities gap between the United States and Europe. However, the gap should not prevent interoperability between the two forces. For example, the U.S. could play a leading role during high-intensity warfare while the Europeans become more prominent in the post-conflict phase. Americans and Europeans also perceive threats in the world today similarly. The author, a lieutenant in the U.S. Army, concludes that, although a gap exists between U.S. and European military capabilities, this disparity may not be as significant as many have implied.

30. THE WILL TO PREVENT: GLOBAL CHALLENGES OF NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION
Allison, Graham
Harvard International Review, vol. 28, no. 3, Fall 2006, pp. 50-55

Harvard University's Graham Allison assesses the threat of nuclear terrorism. He examines five questions: who (could be planning a nuclear terrorist attack; what (weapons could be used); where (could weapons be acquired); could terrorists launch a nuclear attack and deliver a nuclear weapon to its target? While the possibility of nuclear terrorism becomes an increasing reality, there has been a concurrent erosion of the nuclear nonproliferation regime. For global safety's sake, the international community must act to prevent terrorists from acquiring nuclear weapons or the materials from which such weapons could be made.

31. THE WINNING WEAPON? RETHINKING NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN LIGHT OF HIROSHIMA
Wilson, Ward
International Security, Vol. 31, No. 4, Spring 2007, pp. 162-179

In this provocative article, Wilson, an independent scholar, delves into history to re-examine the Japanese surrender of 1945. That surrender has been widely attributed to President Truman's decision to drop two atomic bombs on Japan, one on Hiroshima, one on Nagasaki. The author's examination of archives, however, concludes that Japan's decision to surrender was not made on the basis of its nuclear damage, but rather on the Soviet Union's late-stage entry into the war against Japan, which deprived Japan of all hopes of an alliance with the Soviets. The author posits that the Japanese leadership reacted to the nuclear bombs as a mere extension, in their minds, of an already-devastating bombing campaign. The author concludes that, in light of this insight, it is necessary to re-evaluate nuclear strategy and the importance of the nuclear weapon. Noting that all wars since World War II have been won or lost without use of nuclear weapons, he questions the primacy of the weapon both in war and in deterrence theory.

U.S. Society and Values

32. CAPTAIN GORDON'S INFAMY
Soodalter, Ron
Smithsonian, vol. 38, no. 3, June 2007, pp. 58-65

When Captain Nathaniel Gordon set sail for Africa in April 1860, he undoubtedly knew that U.S. laws against the slave trade had been generally ignored. Gordon bought 897 Africans from traders on the Congo River, cut off their clothes with his knife and shoved them into the hold of his ship. En route to Cuba, he was stopped by the USS Mohican, part of a small U.S. fleet organized to seize slave ships. Gordon was sent to New York to stand trial for piracy under an 1820 law that mandated the death penalty for anyone serving on a U.S. ship that participated in the slave trade. The author notes that President James Buchanan "had declared he would never hang a slaver" - but unfortunately for Gordon, Abraham Lincoln was elected president in November 1860. Gordon's first trial ended in a hung jury, even though a ship's officer testified that Gordon "packed" the slaves "by spreading the limbs of the creatures apart and sitting them so close together that even a foot [of a passing sailor] could not be put upon the deck." The captain was retried, found guilty and sentenced to death; President Lincoln refused to issue a pardon. Gordon took strychnine and nearly died, but doctors managed to get him on his feet to walk to the gallows. It was February 1862 and "the slave trade was dying," writes Soodalter. "The country was making a sharp turn into a new era in which trafficking in humans would no longer find acceptance." Gordon was the only person in U.S. history to be executed for trafficking in slaves.

33. HIP-HOP PLANET
Mcbride, James
National Geographic, vol. 211, no. 4, April 2007, pp. 100-114

"Not since the advent of swing jazz in the 1930s has an American music exploded across the world with such overwhelming force," writes the author. The culture of song, graffiti and dance that is collectively known as hip-hop has transformed popular music in every country that it has permeated. France, home to a large population of North African immigrants, is the second largest hip-hop market in the world. McBride traces the origins of hip-hop, from beat poet Amiri Baraka in the 1950s and 1960s, to the youth of the South Bronx and Harlem who came up with impromptu dance music in the 1970s - largely because the New York City public school system had drastically cut funding for the arts. While its structure is bewildering, and lyrics that glorify violence and ostentatious luxury disturb many, McBride writes that rap music has "become a universal expression of outrage ... at its best, hip-hop lays bare the empty moral cupboard that is our generation's legacy. This music that once made visible the inner culture of America's greatest social problem, its legacy of slavery, has taken the dream deferred to a global scale. Today, 2 percent of the Earth's adult population owns more than 50 percent of its household wealth, and indigenous cultures are swallowed with the rapidity of a teenager gobbling a bag of potato chips. The drums are pounding out a warning. They are telling us something. Our children can hear it. We'd be wise, I suppose, to start paying attention."

34. HOW PAPP GOT IT RIGHT
Eustis, Oskar
American Theatre, Vol. 24, No. 1, January 2007, pp. 74-79

"Theatre's lineage ... is inextricably linked to democracy," says author Oskar Eustis, artistic director of New York City's Public Theatre. He recalls the founding of the New York Shakespeare Festival (1954) and the Public Theatre (1967) by Joseph Papp. In the 1950s Papp began staging Shakespeare productions in Central Park, "defending the principle that art belonged to everybody." Eustis compares the birth of both theatre and democracy in Greece. Theatre changed forever when the god-like storyteller was replaced by characters speaking to each other on stage. "Truth resides not in the storyteller - truth resides somehow in the dialogue, in the space between two people," he says. Similarly, "in order for democracy to work you have to believe that nobody has a monopoly on truth ... you have to believe that truth resides in the dialogue between different points of view." Eustis goes on to decry reduced government support for the arts, "particularly for the risk-taking arts"; the need for nonprofit theatre to depend more on the box office; and the resultant blurring of lines between nonprofit and commercial theatre. "The idea behind nonprofit theatre - certainly the idea behind the Public - is that culture is actually part of the birthright of the nation. The great democratizing power of the theatre needs to be unleashed by the nonprofit theatre, not constrained."

35. IS AMERICA A CHRISTIAN NATION?
Heclo, Hugh
Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 122, No. 1, Spring 2007, pp. 59-87

Heclo, a professor of public affairs at George Mason University, examines political and social surveys to answer this "hot-button" topic. While most Americans hold moderate beliefs, recent research shows that religious polarization is real and important because religious rhetoric has been used by both Republican and Democratic party activists on the extreme ends of the spectrum to mobilize voters. Heclo examines the research regarding Christianity and self-identification, Christianity as a source of moral guidance, Christianity and belief in its doctrines and as influencing behavior, and Christianity and the American political ethos. The answer to the question of America as a Christian nation is both yes - demographically and in its institutions and political ethos, and no, in moral guidance or cultural behavior. The author concludes with polling data that reports a significant number of conservative Christians regard being super-patriotic and super-religious as the same thing and notes that emotional sloganeering is dominating public discourse on the matter. He urges sensible citizens to answer the question about America being a Christian nation using both religion and reason to drown out the rhetoric.

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