Article Alert

September / October 2006

ALERT, a monthly publication of the Information Resource Center at the American Center for Educational Exchange, offers abstracts of current articles in major areas of U.S. domestic or international affairs. Full-text articles are available to you upon request. To request articles, please contact the Information Resource Center by telephone , fax, e-mail ircacee@state.gov, or by mail. To request by mail, please circle the articles you wish to receive, include your name, address, and telephone number and return this list to us.  DISCLAIMER: articles and links to non-U.S. government Internet sites should not be construed as an endorsement of the views contained therein.

The Rule of Law

 

1.    AMERICA'S DEMOCRATIZATION PROJECTS ABROAD

       Kurth, James

       American Spectator, Vol. 39, No. 8, October 2006, pp. 40-47

 

The author examines the successes and failures of America's democratization projects abroad over the past century. Among the greatest success stories were in Germany and Japan after World War II and post-Cold War projects in Eastern Europe. There are many common factors in these successes: the countries involved were industrial and modern, had experienced total military defeat, had ethnically homogeneous populations and faced a greater foreign threat. The contrast between these nations, and the Middle East, where many democratization projects are failing, "could not be greater," says Kurth, who believes that democratization projects in Latin America have a promising future.

 

2.    THE LEGACY OF THE SPECIAL COURT FOR SIERRA LEONE

       Nmehielle, Vincent; Jalloh, Charles Chernor

       Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, vol. 30, no. 2, Summer 2006, pp. 107-124

 

The Special Court established by the United Nations and the government of Sierra Leone to investigate and prosecute crimes related to the 1996-2002 conflict represents an innovation in international human rights law. It was unique in many respects, most significantly in its establishment of a strong, independent legal defense office, location within the country, and conscious effort to help the small West African nation to transform its judicial system. The court collaborated with the Sierra Leone government to develop this legacy by sponsoring projects aimed at four major themes: promoting rule of law, promoting international human rights and the humanitarian law, promoting civil society and the judicial sector, and developing the legal profession in Sierra Leone. The authors argue that international community should carefully consider the Special Court's success and support similar processes in other global hotspots.

 

3.    MONEY AND MANDATES: THE POLITICS OF INTERGOVERNMENTAL CONFLICT

       Gormley Jr., William T.

       Publius, Vol. 36, No. 4, Fall 2006, pp. 523-540

 

This article explores the tenuous relationship between federal and local governments. The author, professor of public policy at Georgetown University, asserts that intergovernmental conflict is highest when there are more federal mandates and less funding. In contentious issues, states will likely seek waivers to excuse themselves from the federal law; in turn, the government usually grants such waivers. When that fails, states are likely to file lawsuits. This has proven the case with environmental policy, which receives the bulk of unfunded mandates, for which states are unable to file waivers. As a result, it accounts for more intergovernmental litigation than healthcare or education. In 1995 the EPA established a performance partnership system in lieu of waivers to reduce the high volume of lawsuits. This seems to be a step in the right direction, though only two-thirds of states are currently participating. 

 

4.    PRESIDENTIAL VISITS AND MIDTERM SENATE ELECTIONS

       Sellers, Patrick J.; Denton, Laura M.

       Presidential Studies Quarterly, Vol. 36, No. 3, September 2006, pp. 410-432

 

This article examines domestic presidential visits during midterm Senate elections between 1982 and 2002. While presidential visits can boost Senate candidates' popularity, presidents are not always working to further the collective goals of their party when making these visits. A president's individual electoral interests lead him to visit places where he can strengthen his electoral coalition or bolster his supporters' commitment, the authors argue. Presidents are also likely to visit states with higher electoral votes more often. "The president will always have the opportunity, and possibly the incentive, to place his own interests first," the authors write.

 

5.    THE SIXTH YEAR SLUMP: BUSH MAY BE OUT BUT DON'T COUNT HIM OUT

       Emery, Noemie

       Weekly Standard, vol. 12, no. 5, Oct 16, 2006

 

The author compares the current approval ratings of George W. Bush with other two-term presidents' ratings around the same time and concludes that public opinion generally falters around year six. However, public opinion at the time doesn't necessarily translate to long-term impressions of an administration. Truman and Reagan both suffered low approval ratings around year six because of unpopular foreign policy, but have since been hailed the winners of the Cold War. Emery concludes that current public opinion usually doesn't hold up in history because it lacks context and the insight of time. According to Emery, it is too early to write President Bush off as a lame duck, because we lack the perspective of time to really evaluate his decision-making.

 

6.    WILL THE REPUBLICANS RETAIN CONGRESS IN 2006?

       Cook, Charles E., Jr.

       Washington Quarterly, vol. 29, no. 4, Autumn 2006, pp. 153-158

 

The author, who writes for National Journal and Congressional Daily, looks at past polling data and election results to see whether the Republicans will retain Congress in 2006. With President Bush's drop in the polls and the public's outlook for the country also dropping, it does not look promising for the GOP. However, after analyzing the House and Senate seats up for reelection, Cook contends that only a few of the GOP seats are vulnerable due to "the quality of Democratic challengers...not [being] what it should be". Although there would be some impact on the Republican Party in November, it has to be a major one for the GOP majorities to lose both House and Senate.

 

Economics and Trade

 

7.    EMERGING GIANTS: BUILDING WORLD-CLASS COMPANIES IN
       DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

       Khanna, Tarun; Palepu, Krishna

       Harvard Business Review, vol. 84, no. 10, October 2006, pp. 60-69

 

Khanna and Palepu, both of the Harvard Business School, say companies in emerging companies can compete successfully, both at home and abroad. Their six-year study of local companies that succeeded against the onslaught of multinational corporations revealed three primary strategies. Some capitalized on their knowledge of local product markets; some exploited their knowledge of local talent and capital markets; and others exploited institutional voids to create profitable businesses. The authors provide real world examples of the successful implementation of these strategies.

 

8.    THE END OF THE BIG TRADE DEAL

       Tarullo, Daniel K.

       International Economy, vol. 20, no. 3, Summer 2006, pp. 46-49

 

The author, a professor of law at Georgetown University and a former Clinton assistant for international economic policy, asserts that the Doha Round will be the last of the grand multilateral trade negotiations. It has been characterized by missed deadlines and recurring charges by the protagonists that someone else is to blame for the lack of progress. Also, he notes, the slow erosion of the U.S.-European alliance following the end of the Cold War has had a subtle but real impact on most areas of cooperation, including trade. He discusses several other factors contributing to the decline of big multilateral trade deals, including a growing reliance on non-controversial bilateral trade agreements. Many committed free traders now question how extensively the WTO should govern domestic regulation. Historically, American, European, and Japanese multinationals have provided a major part of the domestic support for trade agreements. Ironically, the very success of past rounds has given many of these companies most of the trade liberalization they need.

 

9.    FAST TRACK FOREVER?

       Mastel, Greg; Shapiro, Hal

       International Economy, vol. 20, no. 3, Summer 2006, pp. 50-55

 

The authors note that there has been a nearly five-fold increase in Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) since fast-track negotiating authority was reestablished in 2002 by the Trade Promotion Authority Act. Fast-track authority is due to expire in 2007, and historically there have been long breaks before being reinstated, they state. Although it is possible to negotiate FTAs without fast-track authority, say the authors, it is much more difficult and prone to delays -- which discourages trade and is detrimental to both U.S. trade policy and global growth. Therefore, they recommend that some form of permanent fast-track authority be established. A permanent fast track would need to include mechanisms to improve the balance of powers between the President and Congress, they write; additionally, it should provide more guidance on determination of specific authority to

negotiate.

 

10.    GLOBALIZATION AND JOBS

         Martin, John

         OECD Observer, no. 256, July 2006, pp. 10-11

 

Martin, Director of OECD Employment, Labour and Social Affairs, says globalization produces winners and losers. The job threat is real, he acknowledges, but it is manageable as long as the right policies are in place. His recommendations include: practical mechanisms to compensate the "losers", good macroeconomics, flexible labor and product markets, strong employment, and effective lifelong learning/education policies.

 

11.    INVESTING IN THE YOUTH BULGE

         Jimenez, Emmanuel Y.; Murthi, Mamta

         Finance & Development, vol. 43, no. 3, September 2006, pp. 40-43

 

Jimenez and Murthi, both with the World Bank, say that many developing countries are experiencing the largest "youth bulge" in history. The authors discuss the risks and opportunities that this youth bulge can have on economic growth and poverty reduction. They recommend focusing on policies and goals that promote high employment, such as achieving universal primary and secondary education, making reforms in the trade and labor markets, and improving the investment climate for human capital. With the right investments, they write, developing countries can turn their large youth populations into a boon.

 

12.    THAT FALLING FEELING

         Maugeri, Leonardo

         Newsweek, International edition, October 9, 2006

 

Maugeri, economist and oil industry analyst, says that understanding the oil market is difficult, making reasonable forecasts close to impossible. The current oil crisis is not driven by a catastrophic shrinking of oil resources, he states. Rather, two decades of low prices have discouraged exploration and development. Consequently, spare production capacity -- the critical cushion needed to cope with crises -- has dropped to just 2 to 3 percent of global consumption. Another issue is that the complexity of the oil market makes it a good target for conspiracy theories and myths, which can influence speculators regardless of their validity. These factors have made the price of oil a hostage to political and climatic events, he writes. Since it is not possible to forecast oil prices with any accuracy, he asserts, it is not wise to place great stock in any one forecast.

 

13.    WILL EMERGING MARKETS ESCAPE THE NEXT BIG SYSTEMIC FINANCIAL  
         CRISIS?

         Rogoff, Kenneth

         Cato Journal, vol. 26, no. 2, Spring/Summer 2006, pp. 337-341

 

For the past four centuries, emerging market debt crises have broken out like clockwork, says Rogoff, a professor of economics at Harvard University. But in today's world, he notes, emerging market debts are near record lows and most countries are able to borrow liberally on international capital markets. Rogoff summarizes both the optimistic and the pessimistic views of globalization's impact on the financial future of emerging markets. He concludes globalization has helped yield a deeper and more sustained expansion than in the past, but he also expects emerging market debt crises are likely to recur during the next decade.

 

Global Issues

 

14.    CORN PLASTIC TO THE RESCUE?

         Royte, Elizabeth

         Smithsonian, vol. 37, no. 5, August 2006, pp. 84-88

 

Some U.S. food companies, and most recently Wal-Mart, are moving away from packaging made from petroleum-based plastic materials, and are switching to a plastic made from polylactic acid (PLA), a resin derived from corn. The author notes that PLA requires a lot less petroleum to produce, and is biodegradable, however only under certain controlled conditions -- and may still present recycling and disposal challenges. Many environmentalists applaud the growing use of PLA, but still question whether it is the solution to America's throwaway culture, noting that any difficulty of disposing of PLA "reflects a larger deficiency in how we dispose of trash ... [however] we have to start somewhere." 

 

15.    HOW NOT TO BUILD A FENCE

         Skerry, Peter

         Foreign Policy, no. 156, September-October 2006, pp. 64-67

 

The current intense political debate about immigration to the U.S. from Mexico has focused attention on extending and fortifying the physical barrier between the two countries. The author, a political science professor at Boston College, describes how the current 125-mile fence developed over time and how it evolved to address different, and sometimes competing, interests, including free movement of wildlife and other environmental concerns, issues of sovereignty where the border structures cross tribal lands, and even insurance liability. Skerry compares the efficacy of fences and other types of border barriers in other countries. Accompanying graphics illustrate the design, placement, and materials features of the fence.

 

16.    WHEN A PILL IS NOT ENOUGH

         Rosenberg, Tina

         New York Times Magazine, August 6, 2006, pp. 40-59

 

"Shame, stigma and the pathologies of intimate relationships are the new frontier in the fight against AIDS in Africa. How do you treat what is lodged in people's minds?" This, according to the author, is the central question of AIDS treatment in Africa today. Modern medical treatments are increasingly available to those who need it, but success remains uneven across the continent. The reasons are more social and behavioral than medical or even educational. This phenomenon of denial is not limited to Africa. "None of this should be foreign to Americans. We know we should quit smoking. We know we should go have that lump checked out. We know we should give up the French fries. But we don't. In America, as around the world, a good amount of sickness and death is at least in part self-inflicted." The article details theories and programs now being developed, or already in use, to persuade people to change their customs to save their lives.

 

Regional Security

 

17.    EVANGELISTS, OIL COMPANIES, AND TERRORISTS: THE BUSH
         ADMINISTRATION'S POLICY TOWARDS SUDAN

         Huliaras, Asteris

         ORBIS, vol. 50, no. 4, Fall 2006, pp. 709-724

 

The author, associate professor of geopolitics at Harokopion University of Athens, writes that the Bush administration has pursued a policy of constructive engagement with Sudan. Huliaras attributes this policy to three competing spheres of influence: American evangelicals, the war on terror, and oil interests. Evangelicals urged stricter sanctions, but while they played a significant role in placing Sudan on the U.S. foreign policy agenda, Huliaras notes that their influence was far more limited. After 9/11 Sudan became important for the United States because it possessed intelligence vital to the war on terror. Also, Sudan has increased oil production in the last five years and, because of the U.S. desire to diversify its sources of energy, the crisis in Darfur was marginalized by oil interests and the war on terror.

 

18.    EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE: ENABLER OF INSURGENT SUCCESS

         Record, Jeffrey

         Parameters, Vol. 36, No. 3, Autumn 2006, pp. 36-49

 

The author, a professor of strategy at the Air War College in Montgomery, Alabama, says, "Victorious insurgencies are exceptional because the strong usually beat the weak. But all power is relative, and if an insurgency has access to external assistance, such assistance can alter the insurgent-government power ratio even to the point where the insurgency becomes the stronger side." For example, French assistance to the colonists helped the Americans win the Revolution, whereas the lack of sufficient external assistance led to the defeat of the Confederacy in the Civil War. He cites experts who argue that other elements can explain insurgent success -- such as political will, willingness to sacrifice, and superior strategy -- but contends, "even the most committed and cunning insurgency cannot hope to win without material resources." The author uses analyses of other conflicts, including the Chinese Communists' defeat of Chiang Kai-shek and the French defeats in Indochina and Algeria to support his contention that "External assistance can favorably, even decisively, alter the material power ratio between an insurgency and an enemy government or foreign occupier." 

 

19.    GLOBAL NATO

         Daalder, Ivo; Goldgeier, James

         Foreign Affairs, vol. 85, no. 5, September/October 2006, pp.105-113

 

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization's functions have evolved since it was established in 1949. As the world's premier multinational military organization, NATO is essential to the management of current international crises, varying from peacekeeping in Afghanistan to tsunami relief in Indonesia. Ivo Daalder, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, and James Goldgeier, Professor of Political Science at George Washington University and Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, argue that NATO would "enjoy greater legitimacy" if it were to open its membership to non-European democracies aligned with NATO's goals. Countries like Japan and Australia would contribute to NATO's efforts because an increasingly global world demands an increasingly global coalition, and "global threats cannot be tackled by a regional organization," the authors note.

 

20.    HOW TO KEEP THE BOMB FROM IRAN

         Sagan, Scott D.

         Foreign Affairs, vol. 85, no. 5, September/October 2006, pp.45-59

 

As an open supporter of terrorism with strong anti-American and anti-Israeli sentiments, a nuclear Iran would pose a grave threat to the United States and its allies. Scott D. Sagan, Professor of Political Science and Director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University, describes the dangers of "deterrence optimism" and "proliferation fatalism" when approaching the problem of Iran's nuclear program. He argues that, with "no viable military option at hand," the only way to effectively prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon is for the United States and other global players to understand and help satisfy the concerns that drove Iran to develop a nuclear program in the first place.

 

21.    AN INTERVIEW WITH VICE PRESIDENT AND DIRECTOR OF FOREIGN POLICY STUDIES OF THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: CARLOS PASCUAL

         Gurney, David; Krause, Merrick E.

          Joint Forces Quarterly, Issue 42, 3rd Quarter 2006, pp. 80-85

 

Staff of the JFQ interviewed former coordinator of the State Department's Office for Reconstruction and Stabilization about his perspective on initial progress made in establishing an interagency office with the ability to prevent or prepare for post-conflict situations. Pascual, who now works for the Brookings Institution, says significant progress has been made toward the institutionalization of the office since it was created in the summer of 2004. While moving in the right direction, however, he said the office is still years away from meeting its goal. He said there are now 60 employees -- drawn from the Departments of State, Labor, and Justice, USAID and other agencies -- organized into four groups to deal with early warning and conflict prevention, planning, lessons learned and technical capabilities, and resources and management. Pascual talked about how his old office sought funding for 2007 of $20 million for operational costs and $75 million to build a civilian reserve corps but, instead, it needs more like $60 million for operating costs including training and exercises and another $200 million for a conflict response fund. He also emphasized the importance of partnerships with NGOs and private industry, since they tend to provide the personnel who are "the implementers of programs on the ground" including those who conduct police training, provide rule of law expertise and economic development plans.

 

22.    REHABILITATING A ROGUE: LIBYA'S WMD REVERSAL AND LESSONS FOR US POLICY

         Hochman, Dafna

         Parameters, vol. 36, no. 1, Spring 2006, pp. 63-78

 

The author cites Libya as a role model for other rogue nations that wish to engage in voluntary disarmament. This approach recognizes motivation for voluntary disarmament as attributable to multiple causes. In Libya's case, this motivation came from three sources: Libyan concern about al-Qaeda caused a desire to ally with the U.S.; Libyan preoccupation with its reputation and international image; and the pressure exerted on Congress by the families of the victims of Pan Am Flight 103. The combination of these threats caused Libya to perceive greater danger in maintaining its nuclear and chemical programs than in destroying them.

 

23.    SUSPENDED ANIMATION: THE U.S. AND RUSSIA AFTER THE G-8

         Wallander, Celeste

         Current History, vol. 105 no. 693, October 2006, pp. 315-320

 

Relations between Moscow and Washington are at an all-time low and are likely to deteriorate further over the next two years, as the leaders struggle to cooperate on proliferation and terrorism, but find the rest of their diplomacy in "suspended animation." Recent disputes since this year's G-8 summit in St. Petersburg illustrate the depth of disconnect, including the breakdown Russia's WTO entry negotiations, recent U.S. sanctions imposed against two major Russian firms doing business with Iran, and international reaction to Russia's state-controlled energy companies' dealings with its neighbors. The fundamental problem, the author argues, is that each wants what the other will not give: the United States wants a free, democratic, and secure future for Russia and its neighbors, while Russia wants to be considered a great power on its own terms ("sovereign democracy"), as well as undisputed influence in the former Soviet republics. As long as their respective leaderships persist in defining their interests in these opposing terms, the U.S. and Russia can look forward to only periodic tactical cooperation in areas of urgent mutual interest.

 

24.    WHEN NORTH KOREA FALLS

         Kaplan, Robert

         Atlantic Monthly, vol. 298, no. 3, October 2006, pp. 64-73

 

Kaplan, correspondent for Atlantic and a visiting professor at the U.S. Naval Academy, notes that Pyongyang's missile tests and nuclear brinksmanship may obscure a greater threat: the prospect of the collapse of the North Korean regime. He writes that there is evidence that the internal workings of the regime are starting to fray -- "totalitarian regimes close to demise are apt to get panicky and do rash things." A war on the Korean peninsula would be "horrific", as the North maintains a huge standing army and thousands of artillery batteries along the DMZ. Kaplan describes various scenarios that might happen with a breakdown of authority in Pyongyang, and how it might affect the strained relations between Japan, Korea and China. He suspects that a unified Korea after such an event would probably not be viable, as South Koreans would not be interested in the disruption a collapse of the North would produce. He believes that the ultimate beneficiary would be China, which might use a Greater Korea as a key in its long-term plans for dominating the Asian economic sphere.

 

U.S. Society and Values

 

25.    ALL IN THE FAMILY

         Odell, Jennifer

         Down Beat, vol. 73, no. 9, September 2006, pp. 30-35

 

This special issue of Downbeat, edited by Branton Marsalis, pays tribute to the musical traditions of New Orleans one year after Hurricane Katrina and floods devastated the city. In the lead article, Odell sets the scene, focusing on the city's musical families who have passed down New Orleans jazz traditions from generation to generation. Brass bands, Dixieland, jazz, gospel, rhythm and blues, and funk all grew out of the roots of these musical dynasties, which embody the history and the future of New Orleans. Since many family members are still unable to return home, the question as to whether or not they will ever be able to rebuild their homes and neighborhoods remains open. Other feature articles in this issue focus on New Orleans musicians Harry Connick, Jr. and Dr. John, the legacy of New Orleans drummers, and the architecture of the city's musical culture.

 

26.    FABRIC OF THEIR LIVES

         Wallach, Amei

         Smithsonian, vol. 37, no. 7, October 2006, pp. 66-75

 

A new exhibition features works by the quilters of Gee's Bend, Alabama, a small rural community that had developed a quilting tradition in the early 1800s. Gee's Bend women made the quilts to keep their families warm in unheated shacks with no water or electricity. The author notes that "along the way, they developed a distinctive style [of quilting], noted for its lively improvisations and geometric simplicity." Many families suffered from foreclosures in the Depression, and during the 1960s civil-rights era, the ferry which connected them with the outside world was cut off. Only recently rediscovered, the unique style of Gee's Bend quilts have attracted worldwide acclaim; says one art critic, they are "some of the most miraculous works of modern art America has produced."

 

27.    WHERE THE BRAINS ARE

         Florida, Richard

         Atlantic Monthly, vol. 298, no. 3, October 2006, pp. 34-36

 

The author notes that America's educated elite is clustering in a few major metropolitan areas, leaving the rest of the country behind -- a demographic realignment that is every bit as significant as previous migrations in U.S. history. Calling it "means migration", Florida writes that the growing concentration of affluent, educated and talented people to areas such as San Francisco, Boston, New York, Washington, D.C., Seattle and Denver has a multiplier effect on local economic growth. The growing wealth disparity between these magnet regions and the rest of the country will continue to grow, predicts the author, a phenomenon that "will be one of the great political and cultural challenges of the next generation."

 

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